@Article{FerreiraNBFAMML:2022:ImElNi,
               author = "Ferreira, Henrique dos Santos and N{\'o}brega, Ranyere Silva and 
                         Brito, Pedro Vin{\'{\i}}cius da Silva and Farias, J{\'e}ssica 
                         Pires and Amorim, Jaime Henrique and Moreira, Elvis Bergue Mariz 
                         and Mendez, Erick Carvalho and Luiz, Wilson Barros",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia 
                         (UFOBA)} and {Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia (UFOBA)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia (UFOBA)} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual de Santa Cruz} and {Universidade Federal do Oeste da 
                         Bahia (UFOBA)}",
                title = "Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission 
                         dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil",
              journal = "Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "55",
                pages = "e0671--2021",
             keywords = "Time-series, Climate changes, El Nino, Wavelets.",
             abstract = "Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Nino 
                         Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it 
                         influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of 
                         Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities 
                         has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis 
                         and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, 
                         multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This 
                         study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we 
                         performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic 
                         synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period 
                         from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables 
                         and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results 
                         showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening 
                         trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive 
                         anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea 
                         surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing 
                         epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable 
                         environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may 
                         have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, 
                         transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 
                         years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with 
                         El Nino years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021",
                 issn = "0037-8682",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "download.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}